To win the White House, a presidential candidate must secure 270 Electoral College votes. These votes are allocated to U.S. states based on their congressional representation. In most states, the candidate with the most votes wins all of that state’s electors.
Current Electoral Landscape
According to U.S. media tallies, Vice President Kamala Harris starts with 226 Electoral College votes. These votes come from “solid” Democratic states like California, New York, and Illinois, as well as states that lean Democratic. To reach the crucial 270 threshold, Harris needs another 44 votes.
There are several ways for her to secure these votes. However, if she wins all the states she is favored to win, she cannot reach the White House without claiming one of three battleground states: Georgia, North Carolina, or Pennsylvania.
Impacts of International Conflicts on U.S. Elections
Before the U.S. election, discussions about the Israel-Palestine two-state solution grow increasingly bleak. Khaled Elgindy, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, D.C., expressed concerns about the future of this solution. He emphasized that the right-wing government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made progress towards a two-state solution even more elusive.
“We are absolutely farther away from a two-state solution than we’ve ever been,” Elgindy stated. He pointed out that the current Israeli government openly rejects not just the idea of a Palestinian state, but also the very notion of a Palestinian nation or people.
Candidates Avoiding Controversial Issues
When discussing U.S. candidates, Elgindy noted that both have avoided the contentious issue of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Harris has not deviated from President Biden’s permissive approach to Israel amid the ongoing war in Gaza. Meanwhile, Donald Trump has focused on expressing “total support for Netanyahu.”
However, Elgindy cautioned that a Trump administration could be considerably more damaging to Palestinians. “One example would be the fate of the UN Palestinian refugee agency (UNRWA). Under a Trump administration, UNRWA would absolutely be dismantled,” he said.
Voter Sentiments Amid Conflict
Voters are distraught over the war in Gaza and find themselves torn between Harris and Trump. Many Arab American voters, typically aligned with the Democratic Party, are now leaning toward Trump due to the Biden administration’s support for the war in Gaza. This shift has created panic within the Democratic Party’s electoral machine.
Trump’s Campaign Rhetoric
Donald Trump is currently visiting two cities in North Carolina—Gastonia and Greensboro. He has focused heavily on a contentious issue: claiming that FEMA, the federal disaster relief agency, is deliberately withholding assistance from areas that support him. FEMA has denied these allegations. Journalists on the ground have reported a strong FEMA presence in affected areas.
Despite the misinformation, Trump’s claims resonate with his base. This narrative drives anger among his supporters and encourages them to turn out at the polls.
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