Explosions in Kabul and Paktika have reignited the blame game between Afghanistan’s Taliban government and Pakistan, deepening regional unease as Kabul strengthens diplomatic outreach to India. The keyword Pakistan-Afghanistan tensions underscores a growing strain that threatens to destabilize South Asia’s fragile security balance.
Explosions Spark Diplomatic Firestorm
On Thursday, two explosions hit Kabul and the eastern province of Paktika. Initially, Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid confirmed a blast in the capital but called it a minor incident, saying it caused no injuries. By Friday, however, Afghanistan’s Ministry of Defence directly blamed Pakistan for both attacks, though no evidence or details were shared.
These accusations come at a time of worsening relations between the neighbors. Islamabad has long accused the Taliban of sheltering the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), an armed group responsible for deadly attacks inside Pakistan. Kabul denies the claim, asserting that it does not allow its soil to be used against others.
Visit to India Adds to Suspicion
The explosions coincided with Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi’s arrival in India for a six-day visit — his first since the Taliban seized power in August 2021. The timing fueled speculation that Pakistan may have targeted Taliban-linked militants in Kabul, possibly TTP leader Noor Wali Mehsud. Afghan officials later denied these reports, confirming Mehsud’s safety.
Pakistan’s military neither confirmed nor denied involvement. However, army spokesman Ahmad Sharif stated that “Afghanistan is being used as a base of operations against Pakistan,” adding that the military would take all necessary steps to safeguard its citizens. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Islamabad did not respond to media requests for comment.
Read: US to Supply Pakistan with Advanced AMRAAM Missiles
Longstanding Tensions Boil Over
The relationship between Kabul and Islamabad has deteriorated steadily since 2021. Once seen as allies, the two sides now exchange open hostility. Pakistan accuses the Taliban of providing sanctuary to militants responsible for a surge in cross-border attacks, while Kabul blames Pakistan for violating its sovereignty through airstrikes.
Despite multiple peace efforts, including a visit by Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar to Kabul in April 2025, progress has been limited. China has often tried to mediate, encouraging both governments to cooperate against extremist groups. Still, violence in Pakistan continues to rise.
Violence on the Rise Again
According to the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS), attacks in the first nine months of 2025 nearly matched the total from 2024 — one of the deadliest years in a decade. The U.S.-based Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) attributes most of this surge to the TTP, which carried out at least 600 assaults on security forces in the past year.
In recent weeks, violence has intensified. Multiple attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province have killed dozens of soldiers. The Pakistani military claims to have eliminated more than 30 militants linked to a recent assault in Orakzai district.
Islamabad’s Stern Warning
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, after visiting wounded soldiers last month, delivered a sharp warning to Kabul. “Afghanistan must choose — friendship with Pakistan or support for terrorists,” he said. Defence Minister Khawaja Asif echoed his remarks, accusing Afghanistan of enabling bloodshed despite years of talks.
He criticized Kabul’s lack of cooperation, saying Pakistan continues to “pay the price of decades of Afghan hospitality with blood,” referencing the millions of refugees who have lived in Pakistan since the 1980s.
Refugee Expulsions Add to Strain
Since late 2023, Pakistan has launched a mass expulsion drive, deporting nearly one million Afghans. Many had lived in Pakistan for decades. The campaign has angered Kabul, which accuses Islamabad of collective punishment. The refugee issue has further strained public sentiment on both sides of the border.
Deepening Distrust and Security Fallout
Military tensions have occasionally flared into direct clashes. Pakistan carried out airstrikes in Afghan territory as recently as December 2024, claiming to target militants. Analysts warn that if Pakistan was behind the latest explosions, the fallout could be severe.
Kabul-based security expert Tameem Bahiss said such actions risk worsening already fragile ties. “Previous Pakistani strikes yielded no real results — they only deepened mistrust and made cooperation on counterterrorism harder,” he explained. “This latest incident could further harden attitudes.”
The last major strike in Kabul was in 2022 when U.S. drones killed al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri.
Possible Warning from Islamabad
Islamabad-based analyst Ihsanullah Tipu Mehsud believes that if Pakistan orchestrated the blasts, they were likely a warning following recent TTP attacks. “Pakistan may be signaling its intent to target key figures inside Kabul or Kandahar if the Taliban don’t rein in the TTP,” he said.
However, Bahiss warned that continued cross-border operations could backfire. “If Pakistan expands its strikes, public sympathy for the TTP inside Afghanistan may rise, leading to new recruits and possible silent support from within the Taliban ranks,” he said.
Fragile Future Ahead
The Pakistan-Afghanistan tensions now represent one of South Asia’s most volatile flashpoints. With mistrust deepening and regional players like India entering the scene, diplomatic breakthroughs seem distant. Each side accuses the other of harboring militants, while civilians on both sides continue to suffer from the cycle of violence and retaliation.
Unless both governments find a way to rebuild communication and trust, the shadow of war and instability will continue to loom over their shared frontier — threatening not only their security but also the fragile balance of peace in the wider region.
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