The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has firmly rejected reports suggesting that the country will face its coldest winter in decades. According to the Met Office, there is no scientific evidence supporting such predictions. Instead, it forecasts a milder season with below-normal rainfall across many regions of the country.
No Scientific Basis for “Coldest Winter” Predictions
In recent weeks, social media and some reports claimed Pakistan could face a record-breaking winter due to the La Niña phenomenon. However, the PMD clarified that these statements are unfounded.
“The country may experience some winter waves due to western winds,” the Met Office said, “but there are no possibilities of an intensely cold winter this year.” It added that between December and February, Pakistan is likely to receive less-than-average rainfall, which typically keeps temperatures moderate.
This statement directly counters the predictions made by the Intersector Coordination Group (ISCG), which had warned of one of the coldest winters in decades. The PMD maintained that there is no verified meteorological data to support that claim.
PMD Forecasts a Milder, Drier Winter
The national weather agency emphasized that Pakistan’s upcoming winter is expected to remain milder than what some forecasts suggest. Instead of extreme cold, it anticipates reduced precipitation and fewer intense cold spells.
According to PMD’s data, winter waves will pass through the country occasionally due to the western disturbance system, but their intensity will remain low. “There’s no evidence of prolonged freezing conditions,” an official noted, highlighting that dry weather will dominate most regions.
The forecast indicates that the reduced rainfall could also have implications for water resources and agriculture, particularly in regions reliant on winter rains.
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Conflicting Reports from International Sources
The disagreement between the PMD and other global and regional forecasting groups has sparked public confusion. Earlier, the ISCG predicted that La Niña could lead to abnormally low temperatures in Pakistan. Their claim was based on preliminary assessments of global sea surface temperature patterns.
However, the PMD challenged this interpretation, stressing that Pakistan’s regional weather systems do not always align with global climate indicators. Local geographical features, such as the Himalayan mountain range and western wind patterns, often moderate or alter the expected effects of La Niña.
“While La Niña can bring colder-than-usual temperatures globally, its impact varies significantly by region,” the PMD said. “There’s no certainty that Pakistan will face extreme cold based on this phenomenon alone.”
Understanding the La Niña Effect
La Niña is a climatic condition that occurs when sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean drop abnormally. This shift influences global weather systems and can trigger extreme weather events, including droughts, floods, or temperature swings.
In Pakistan’s case, La Niña has historically brought colder winters in the northern and western regions but not consistently. Its effects depend on how other climate factors, such as the Indian Ocean Dipole and El Niño-Southern Oscillation, interact.
According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN-OCHA), both the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole are currently in marginally negative phases. This combination may influence rainfall patterns but is unlikely to produce record-breaking cold across Pakistan.
Regional Outlook: North to See Dry, Cool Conditions
The UN-OCHA report added that northern areas like Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK), and Gilgit Baltistan (GB) could experience below-normal rainfall during the upcoming winter.
Meanwhile, southern regions including Sindh, Balochistan, and southern Punjab may see near-normal precipitation. This means that while temperatures could drop slightly in northern areas, the lack of heavy rainfall will likely prevent extreme cold waves.
Currently, regions such as Malakand, Hazara, Murree, GB, and Kashmir have already recorded up to 22.5 inches of snow. However, meteorologists note that early snowfalls do not necessarily indicate a record-setting winter ahead.
Climate Impact and Health Concerns
The forecast also outlines several potential challenges linked to the changing weather pattern. These include disruptions to Kharif crop harvesting due to isolated storms, and increased risks of dengue outbreaks caused by stagnant water.
Additionally, experts warn that drier conditions and limited rainfall could raise the likelihood of glacial lake outburst floods in upper mountainous regions, as well as smog and air pollution in urban plains.
Reduced river inflows may also impact irrigation, while higher-than-normal temperatures could affect livestock health and fodder availability in rural areas. The PMD urged authorities to monitor these conditions closely and prepare adaptive measures to safeguard public health and agriculture.
Public Urged to Rely on Verified Information
Amid widespread social media rumors, the PMD called on citizens to rely only on official forecasts and verified scientific data. Officials warned against spreading misinformation that could cause panic or confusion.
They reiterated that Pakistan is not facing an unprecedented winter but rather a milder, drier season influenced by regional climate variations. “People should prepare for normal cold waves,” said a spokesperson, “not extreme freezing temperatures.”
Meteorologists emphasized the importance of credible weather information to help communities plan for seasonal changes. The PMD continues to monitor evolving climate patterns and will update forecasts as new data becomes available.
Balancing Facts and Fears
As Pakistan transitions into the winter months, the debate over the season’s severity highlights the growing challenge of misinformation in climate reporting. While La Niña may influence global temperatures, the PMD’s data-driven stance reinforces the need for caution before drawing sweeping conclusions.
Ultimately, officials and experts agree on one thing — scientific accuracy must lead public understanding. And for now, all evidence points toward a winter that will be cool but far from the coldest in Pakistan’s history.
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