Pakistan is facing a severe water shortage as the country’s largest reservoir, Tarbela Dam, has nearly reached its dead level of 1,402 feet. This signals a worsening crisis, with water shortages at rim stations rising to 41% and canal heads experiencing a 50-55% deficit. The situation is no better at Mangla Dam, where water levels have dropped to 1,054 feet, just four feet above the dead level. If this trend continues, severe impacts on agriculture and drinking water supplies are expected.
Critical Water Levels in Major Reservoirs
Tarbela Dam’s water inflows currently stand at 13,800 cusecs, while outflows are at 20,000 cusecs. The Indus River System Authority (IRSA) has warned that Tarbela will soon switch to a run-of-the-river system, meaning there will be no stored water available.
Mangla Dam is also facing a critical situation. Its inflows are recorded at 23,236 cusecs, while outflows are at 20,351 cusecs. The Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) has urged IRSA to begin storing water at Mangla to prevent silt from damaging power turbines.
Sindh Faces an Alarming Crisis
Sindh is experiencing the worst effects of the water crisis. The Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) has warned that 13 districts, including Karachi and Hyderabad, are at risk of drought. The province could face over 50% water shortages in the remaining weeks of March and the early Kharif season if inflows do not improve.
The Indus River, a lifeline for Sindh, has dried up in many areas. Punjab is currently receiving 35,000 cusecs of water, while Sindh is getting 22,300 cusecs. However, these allocations are still far below required levels, putting farmers and communities in jeopardy.
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Impact on Agriculture
The water crisis threatens the upcoming Kharif season, which includes critical crops like cotton and sugarcane. Farmers already face difficulties due to reduced water availability, and if conditions do not improve by April 10, crop production will suffer major losses.
The early cotton sowing season is at high risk, while sugarcane crops may not receive enough water to grow properly. With total water storage in Pakistan plummeting to just 0.086 million acre-feet (MAF), the agricultural sector is bracing for tough times ahead.
Hope for Improvement After April 10
Despite the grim situation, there is some hope for relief. The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has forecasted an increase in water flows after April 10. Rising temperatures in the Indus River’s catchment areas, including Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashmir, are expected to accelerate glacier melting. This could improve water availability in the Indus Basin system.
If water flows increase as predicted, the overall shortage during the Kharif season may drop to around 20-25%. However, authorities remain cautious and continue to monitor the situation closely.
The Road Ahead
Pakistan’s water crisis requires urgent attention. Authorities must take immediate measures to manage available resources efficiently and plan for long-term solutions. With water reserves dwindling, strategic planning is essential to prevent further agricultural losses and ensure water security for the country.
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