Most of the missiles were intercepted, but some landed in densely populated areas and near Israeli military bases. Barak emphasized the need for Israel to respond decisively. “Israel has a compelling need, even an imperative, to respond,” he stated in an interview. “No sovereign nation on Earth could fail to respond.”
He compared the potential Israeli response to the recent airstrikes on Houthi-controlled facilities in Yemen. Following a missile attack aimed at Israel’s international airport, Israel targeted oil facilities and power plants in Hodeidah. “I think we might see something like that. It might be a massive attack, and it could be repeated more than once,” Barak told The Guardian.
On Thursday, U.S. President Joe Biden confirmed discussions in Washington regarding a possible Israeli strike on Iran’s oil sector. However, he did not provide details or clarify whether the U.S. would support such an attack. Barak, now 82, mentioned that some in Israel suggested using this opportunity to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities. However, he argued that such actions would not significantly hinder Iran’s nuclear program.
Barak’s Evolving Stance on Military Action Against Iran’s Nuclear Program
During his tenure as defense minister from 2007 to 2013, Barak was a strong advocate for bombing Iranian nuclear sites. He tried unsuccessfully to persuade U.S. Presidents George Bush and Barack Obama to lend military support to Israel’s efforts. On Wednesday, Biden echoed Obama’s opposition to any Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Barak himself now acknowledges that Iran’s nuclear program has advanced too far for any military campaign to delay it significantly.
“There are some commentators and even some people within the defense establishment who raised the question: Why not hit the nuclear military program?” he said. “A little more than a decade ago, I was among the most hawkish in Israeli leadership arguing that it was worth considering because there was an actual capability to delay them by several years.”
Currently, Barak argues that Iran is a “de facto threshold country.” While they do not yet possess a nuclear weapon, they may develop one within a year. “Practically speaking, you cannot easily delay them in any significant manner,” he asserted.
Under the 2015 multilateral nuclear agreement, Iran accepted restrictions on uranium enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief. However, the deal has unraveled since the U.S. withdrawal under Donald Trump in 2018. Today, Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium exceeds 30 times the 2015 limit, enriching uranium to nearly 60% purity. This level is dangerously close to weapons-grade fissile material, reducing the “breakout time” to produce a nuclear bomb from at least a year to just a few weeks.
Internal Pressure Within the Netanyahu Government
Barak believes there is internal pressure within the Netanyahu government for a symbolic strike against Iran’s nuclear program. He considers such gestures futile but acknowledges they might be seen as necessary. “You can cause certain damage, but even this might be perceived by some planners as worth the risk,” he explained.
While Barak insists a significant military response from Israel is unavoidable, he believes earlier opportunities to limit the conflict were overlooked. He urges that, without a clear strategy, further escalation could lead to regional warfare. “I do not put the blame for the whole event on Netanyahu. This is basically the fault of Hamas and Hezbollah, with Iran behind them,” he concluded.
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