Amid recent shifts in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Assembly, speculation is growing around a possible no-confidence motion against Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur. Despite PTI holding a clear majority, opposition numbers are quietly increasing—fueling political intrigue in the province.
PTI-Led Majority Still Intact
Gandapur currently enjoys strong support from 58 members of the Sunni Ittehad Council (SIC) and 34 independents. Nearly all independents are PTI-backed. Interestingly, Gandapur himself took oath as an independent and has not officially joined the SIC. This bloc gives the PTI a comfortable edge in the 145-member assembly.
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Opposition Strength Grows
Despite denials from PML-N leaders like Rana Sanaullah and Khawaja Asif, opposition forces seem to be preparing for a challenge. Their combined strength has grown to 53, with parties like the PML-N, JUI-F, and PPP benefiting from reserved seat allocations disproportionate to their elected members. To succeed in a no-confidence vote, they need at least 73 members—meaning a shortfall of 20.
Legal Routes and Tactics
Two constitutional options exist. Under Article 136, the opposition can move a no-confidence vote and prove majority support. Alternatively, the governor can invoke Article 130(7), forcing the CM to seek a vote of confidence if doubts arise over his majority.
The opposition could aim to win over independents or even try to influence SIC members. Following an October 2024 Supreme Court ruling, votes from defectors will count—even if disqualified later. If SIC members defect, by-elections follow. If independents switch sides, no elections are needed.
Loyalty a Tough Barrier
Still, the odds remain stacked against the opposition. Most independents have longstanding ties to the PTI. Many SIC members are party loyalists or first-time winners on PTI platforms. Shifting them would require more than just political persuasion.
Moreover, PTI continues to enjoy widespread public support in KP. Defections could cost lawmakers their credibility and voter base—making any such move highly risky. While the numbers game may tempt the opposition, the loyalty factor remains a formidable hurdle.
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