Has India Weaponised Water Against Pakistan?

The debate over water aggression has intensified as Pakistan reels from catastrophic monsoon floods that have submerged villages, displaced millions, and killed hundreds. While officials in Islamabad accuse India of deliberately releasing dam water without warning, experts caution that climate change, not strategy, is the driving force behind the devastation.

Shared Floods, Shared Misery

For the second time in three years, Pakistan has faced ruinous floods across its northern and central regions, particularly Punjab. Since late June, at least 884 people have died nationwide, with more than 220 deaths in Punjab alone. Millions have been displaced, while farmland lies underwater.

Yet Pakistan is not alone in its suffering. On the Indian side of the border, heavy monsoon rains have also devastated Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Punjab. India has reported over 100 deaths, including more than 30 in Indian Punjab. The shared misery has not brought the two rivals closer. Instead, it has sparked fresh accusations.

Accusations of Water Weaponisation

Federal Minister Ahsan Iqbal accused New Delhi of deliberately releasing excess water from dams into the Ravi, Sutlej, and Chenab rivers without timely warnings. Speaking in late August during rescue operations in his Narowal constituency, which borders India, he said, “India has started using water as a weapon and has caused wide-scale flooding in Punjab.”

Iqbal described the move as the “worst example of water aggression.” He warned that such actions threatened lives, property, and livelihoods. Stressing the importance of cooperation, he added, “Some issues should be beyond politics, and water cooperation must be one of them.”

These allegations come at a sensitive time. Relations between India and Pakistan, already at a historic low, worsened in April after the Pahalgam attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, which left 26 civilians dead. India blamed Pakistan for the assault and walked out of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a six-decade-old pact that governed river-sharing between the two nations.

The Indus Waters Treaty Breakdown

Signed in 1960 with World Bank mediation, the IWT was long hailed as a rare success story of cooperation between the two rivals. It divided the Indus Basin’s six rivers between them, giving Pakistan control over the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab, while India retained rights to the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej.

But with India’s withdrawal earlier this year, that framework lies in disarray. The absence of coordination means flood warnings are delayed or ignored, heightening risks during extreme weather. For Pakistani officials, India’s unilateral actions confirm fears of water being weaponised.

Experts Urge Caution

Despite political rhetoric, experts remain unconvinced that India deliberately seeks to flood Pakistan. They argue that water releases from Indian dams are primarily defensive measures to protect Indian towns and infrastructure from being submerged.

“India would have to flood itself first to flood Pakistan,” said one hydrology expert. Both countries face similar climate challenges: melting glaciers, heavier monsoons, and swollen rivers. In such a scenario, excess releases are often unavoidable.

Environmentalists add that focusing solely on Indian actions distracts from the real crisis. Climate change, deforestation, and poor water management are amplifying the scale of disasters across South Asia. Both nations, they stress, need to strengthen disaster preparedness rather than trade accusations.

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Climate Change and the Flood Cycle

South Asia is increasingly vulnerable to climate shocks. Pakistan, with its dependence on glacier-fed rivers and vast floodplains, is particularly exposed. Monsoon patterns are becoming more erratic, leading to intense rainfall in shorter spans of time.

Glacier melt in the Himalayas also swells rivers beyond capacity. With forests depleted and wetlands encroached upon, floodwaters now spread faster and farther than before. Urban sprawl in flood-prone zones adds to the human toll.

These are shared challenges. India’s northern states suffer the same patterns of destruction, underscoring that both countries face a common climate enemy rather than an engineered flood strategy.

Humanitarian Toll in Pakistan

For ordinary Pakistanis, the debate over water aggression offers little comfort. In Punjab, nearly half a million people have been displaced by floods. Villagers walk for miles through waterlogged fields, seeking shelter in makeshift camps.

Families have lost homes, livestock, and crops. Relief camps are crowded, with shortages of food and medicine. Children wade through stagnant water, raising fears of disease outbreaks. The scale of suffering is immense, and recovery will take months, if not years.

Political Calculations and Public Perception

Still, accusations of water weaponisation resonate with the public. Anti-India sentiment remains strong in Pakistan, and allegations of deliberate flooding fuel distrust. For leaders, it is politically easier to blame an adversary than to confront structural issues of governance, planning, and climate adaptation.

Analysts suggest that while political rhetoric may strengthen short-term narratives, it risks undermining opportunities for regional cooperation. Joint mechanisms for flood forecasting, data sharing, and coordinated releases are urgently needed. Without them, both nations will continue to suffer devastating losses with every monsoon.

A Test of Regional Will

The current floods highlight a bitter truth: water, once a symbol of shared lifelines, has become a point of political contest. Yet no country can fight climate change alone. South Asia’s survival depends on cooperation, not confrontation.

Whether Pakistan and India can look beyond mutual suspicion to build joint resilience remains uncertain. For now, the waters rise, the people suffer, and accusations of water aggression continue to ripple across a fragile region.