Liverpool are tipped to rule again, but the battle for positions is far from simple. New Premier League predictions from Opta and Sky Sports show major differences—especially for Manchester United. One model puts them in the bottom half. The other sees them fighting for Europe. So, which one will prove right?
Liverpool Aim to Retain Crown
The champions spent big this summer. Under Arne Slot, Liverpool look ready to defend their title. Their signings include Florian Wirtz for a record fee, plus Hugo Ekitike, Milos Kerkez, Jeremie Frimpong, and Giorgi Mamardashvili. The spending nears £300 million, although sales of Luis Diaz and Darwin Nunez offset some of it.
Arsenal have strengthened as well. Manchester City rebuilt their squad. Chelsea, fresh from Club World Cup success, want to push higher. Spurs and Manchester United aim to bounce back from poor campaigns.
Opta’s Prediction: United in Trouble
Opta’s supercomputer gives Liverpool first place and Arsenal second, with only a narrow gap. Manchester City, Chelsea, Newcastle, and Aston Villa follow in the top six—exactly as last season’s final standings.
The big shock is Manchester United in 12th. Spurs sit even lower in 14th. Crystal Palace, buoyed by FA Cup and Community Shield wins, take seventh. Brighton, Bournemouth, and Nottingham Forest round out the top ten.
At the bottom, Opta sees a familiar story. Newly-promoted Burnley, Leeds, and Sunderland all go straight back down. Wolves finish just above the drop zone.
Sky Sports’ Prediction: United Back in the Mix
Sky Sports’ model paints a brighter picture for United. They climb to fifth, between Chelsea in fourth and Newcastle in sixth. Spurs rise to eighth under new boss Thomas Frank.
Liverpool still take the title ahead of Arsenal, with City in third. The key difference comes at the bottom—Sky Sports expects Leeds to survive, pushing Wolves into 18th.
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Big Differences Between the Two Models
Manchester United show the largest gap between predictions—seven places higher in Sky Sports’ table than in Opta’s. Spurs also gain six places in Sky’s forecast. Everton move up three to sneak into the top half.
On the flip side, Bournemouth suffer in Sky’s model, dropping to 15th after several player sales. Crystal Palace, Brentford, and Brighton also fall compared to Opta’s numbers.
Both models use 10,000 simulations, factoring in bookmaker odds, past and recent form, and transfer activity. But their algorithms weigh those inputs differently, creating stark contrasts.
Transfers Shape the Forecast
The summer market plays a huge role in these predictions. Liverpool’s record spending keeps them as favourites in both tables. The “Big Six” clubs spent over £1 billion combined.
Manchester United lead the league in net spend at £214.2 million. Their high-profile signings—Matheus Cunha, Bryan Mbeumo, and Benjamin Sesko—boost their attack. However, Opta sees trouble. United spent little on defence and midfield, leaving last season’s weaknesses largely untouched.
Chelsea Solid but Not Contenders
Chelsea enter with momentum from their Club World Cup win. Both models place them fourth, securing Champions League football. New signings Estevao, Joao Pedro, and Liam Delap bring excitement.
Yet history warns against a title push—they have not finished above third since 2017. A brutal final run of fixtures against top clubs could stall their progress.
Spurs Face Uncertain Future
Spurs ended last season as Europa League champions but 17th in the league. Frank’s arrival brought six new players, including Mohammed Kudus and Joao Palhinha.
Sky Sports believes they can reach eighth, but Opta predicts another bottom-half finish. Either way, Spurs remain below their target level.
Survival Fight at the Bottom
Burnley and Sunderland appear doomed in both forecasts. Leeds, though, split opinion. Sky Sports expects them to survive by a narrow margin over Wolves, who lost key men and spent little on replacements.
Writers’ Predictions
Sky Sports journalists also made their calls. On average, they see Liverpool as champions. Manchester United and Spurs land sixth and seventh. Leeds, Sunderland, and Burnley take the drop.
The new season promises drama at both ends of the table. From Liverpool’s title defence to United’s uncertain fate, the numbers tell one story—but the pitch will write the final chapter.
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