Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) has unveiled a new protest strategy as it marks two years since founder Imran Khan was imprisoned. Moving away from their failed march on Islamabad in November 2024, the party is focusing protests on Punjab instead of the capital, hoping to build momentum in the country’s most populous and politically pivotal province.
Strategy Change After 26 November Debacle
PTI insiders say the leadership opted to avoid Islamabad due to the chaos and confrontations during the November protest. This time, Punjab—ruled by political rivals—is the target. The Punjab government, however, has banned mass gatherings and warned that law enforcement will crack down even on peaceful rallies if they escalate, citing intelligence reports of potential unrest similar to May 2023.
Memory of May 9 Still Dampens Protests
Punjab officials fear a repeat of the deadly May 9 riots when PTI supporters clashed with security forces. Government spokesperson Azma Bokhari said authorities would not interfere if the protest remained peaceful. But she stressed that provocative actions would incur a strong response. PTI leaders suspect this may be pretext to prevent large-scale mobilization.
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Imran’s Two-Year Hurdle: No Deals Yet
Despite initial hopes for an early release, all attempts to negotiate Imran’s freedom have failed. PTI leadership insists he intends to serve his full sentence, but speculation continues about attempts to strike a deal with Pakistan’s establishment. After a few months of fruitless talks, Khan reportedly cut off dialogue, deeming the ruling elite powerless to help him.
Other jailed PTI figures include former Secretary General Shah Mahmood Qureshi, Yasmeen Rashid, Sarfraz Cheema, and Mahmood Rasheed. Their detention underscores the government’s strategy of targeting PTI’s core leadership.
Punjab Key to Revival Hoes
Despite PTI’s roots in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Khan now pushes leadership to expand stronghold to Punjab. Yet the Punjab government’s already-enacted Section 144 and tight security posture present major obstacles. Internal dissent within PTI also surfaced, especially criticism of Punjab Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur and disagreements over protest tactics following the November failure.
Political Context and Internal Disputes
PTI sought alliances with JUI-F and Jamaat-e-Islami to bolster support. Discussions with Maulana Fazl failed due to local rivalries and strategic misalignment. Similarly, JI remained distant, preferring its own agenda despite past coalition work. This isolation further weakens PTI’s thrust in Punjab.
Sources within the party say Imran is frustrated by both past protest outcomes and leadership inaction. His dissatisfaction reflects a deeper struggle between KP-focused strategy and a broader national campaign centered on Punjab.
Legal Constraints and Appeals
Post the 26th Constitutional Amendment, legal avenues for Imran’s release appear limited. His appeal in the high-profile £190 million Al-Qadir Trust case remains the party’s only hope. But PTI’s legal team has low expectations. Meanwhile, over 100 PTI workers already stand convicted in military courts linked to the May 9 unrest—further tightening the government’s grip.
Protest Day: A Crucial Test
Today’s protest marks a critical test for PTI’s revised approach. Organizers aim to demonstrate strength despite curbed freedoms. Observers note that Imran’s popularity remains high based on polling trends, yet the party struggles to translate that support into visible street strength under government pressure.
Should the protest falter, internal fractures and leadership missteps may deepen. Conversely, a disciplined and peaceful turnout could reinvigorate PTI’s national relevance—especially as it seeks to reclaim stature in Punjab.
Opposition vs State Strategy: A Standstill
Neither side appears willing to surrender ground. PTI hopes to reshape protest norms and regain momentum. The ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) government, backed by security agencies, remains focused on suppression and narrative control.
PTI’s last fallback hope—the involvement of Imran’s sons—has not materialized. Sulaiman and Kasim Khan, once expected to play a role, have stayed away, leaving protest leaders without high-profile figures to rally behind.
What’s Next?
PTI’s new protest strategy hinges on success in Punjab. The party must mobilize without provoking crackdowns, forge alliances, and restore credibility. Failure could deepen internal conflict and shrink its political space. Meanwhile, the government remains determined to contain unrest while maintaining legal pressure on PTI.
As Imran enters his third year in prison, the coming days—or lack of traction—may define whether PTI finds a new path forward or remains sidelined in Pakistan’s shifting political cycle.
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