President Donald Trump reignited the housing shortage debate after claiming that major U.S. homebuilders were hoarding millions of empty lots, delaying new construction, and keeping the American Dream out of reach for many families. His remarks, shared Sunday night on Truth Social, sparked fresh discussions about the real cause behind the nation’s housing crisis.
Trump’s Accusation Against Big Builders
In his post, Trump compared large homebuilders to OPEC, accusing them of restricting housing supply to inflate prices. “They’re sitting on 2 million empty lots,” he wrote. “I’m asking Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to get Big Homebuilders going and, by so doing, help restore the American Dream.”
He insisted that while the homebuilders were “his friends,” they were still responsible for slowing the market. The statement reflected Trump’s characteristic populist tone—challenging powerful industries while promising relief for struggling Americans.
Enter the YIMBY Movement
Trump’s remarks echoed parts of the “Yes in My Backyard” (YIMBY) movement, which advocates for fewer housing restrictions and faster construction to increase supply. The movement—popularized by journalists like Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson—has attracted bipartisan support, focusing on how local zoning laws, rather than greed, drive the housing shortage.
However, several housing experts argued that Trump misunderstood the problem. Bryan Caplan, a libertarian economist at George Mason University and a leading YIMBY advocate, said the issue wasn’t homebuilders hoarding land—it was overregulation.
Caplan Rejects Trump’s Comparison
“It’s bizarre to compare homebuilders to OPEC,” Caplan told Fortune. “OPEC is a small cartel of countries that coordinate to limit supply. U.S. homebuilding is the opposite—thousands of firms eager to build but trapped in red tape.”
Caplan has long argued that zoning restrictions, environmental reviews, and local political resistance are the biggest barriers to affordable housing. “If you see an empty lot,” he explained, “it’s not that the builder’s lazy. They’re probably waiting on permission.”
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Data Contradicts Trump’s Claim
Recent data supports Caplan’s point. According to a September survey by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo, 64% of single-family builders said the supply of buildable lots was low, with 26% calling it “very low.” Though slightly improved from the 2021 peak, the figure remains higher than at any point between 1997 and 2016.
This persistent shortage exists despite slower construction rates. Over the past three years, U.S. housing starts have averaged under 1.5 million annually—around the long-term national average. Before the 2008 crash, even during a housing boom in 2005, fewer than 53% of builders reported a lot shortage. The lack of available, permitted land continues to stifle new construction and worsen affordability across the market.
The Role of Local Regulation
Caplan emphasized that local rules—more than financing—create bottlenecks. In heavily regulated cities like San Francisco, builders can spend years navigating dozens of permits before breaking ground. In contrast, states with fewer restrictions, like Texas, have added over a million new homes in the past decade.
“They all have Fannie and Freddie,” Caplan said. “The difference isn’t money—it’s freedom to build.”
Questioning Trump’s Solution
Trump’s post called on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two government-backed mortgage giants, to push homebuilders into action. But Caplan, whose wife works at Freddie Mac, doubted they had that kind of influence.
“Even if Freddie Mac told developers to hurry up, city planners don’t answer to them,” he said. “Local governments control permits, and they move at their own pace.”
He added that federal subsidies or cheap loans would likely benefit states like Texas—where regulations are lighter—while having little effect in markets constrained by zoning. “Where regulation blocks building, extra money just sits there,” Caplan explained. “In Houston or Dallas, it could mean more rooftops. In San Francisco, nothing changes until the zoning does.”
Politics and Industry Ties
Trump’s criticism also raised eyebrows due to his connections within the homebuilding industry. Bill Pulte, head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency and a longtime Trump ally, comes from the Pulte family, founders of PulteGroup—one of America’s largest homebuilders. Although it’s unclear whether Pulte was involved in Trump’s post, the overlap between Trump’s message and his administration’s industry ties has drawn attention.
Market-Driven Growth vs. State Intervention
Caplan contrasted Trump’s top-down approach with what he described as a “true market-driven boom.” Instead of government pressure on lenders and developers, Caplan envisions a freer housing market where developers can replace low-rise buildings with taller structures and build multi-family housing closer to public transit.
“That’s how you get homes people actually want,” he said. “Not more million-dollar mansions funded by subsidies, but duplexes, small apartments, and affordable options in good locations.”
A Symbolic but Limited Step
Despite his criticism, Caplan acknowledged that Trump’s focus on housing might help spotlight an overlooked crisis. “It’s a tiny glimmer of hope that he’s noticing the shortage,” he said. “But until leaders stop blaming builders and start confronting zoning, nothing will change.”
Trump’s post, though brief, has reignited debate across political and economic circles. For some, it signals a new populist angle on housing policy. For others, it highlights how deeply misunderstood the root causes of the U.S. housing shortage remain.
Renewed Focus on Housing Policy
As the 2026 election season approaches, housing affordability continues to dominate national conversations. Trump’s remarks may pressure policymakers to address bottlenecks in construction and land-use reform. But whether that leads to lasting change—or just another political talking point—remains to be seen.
The broader takeaway is clear: without tackling restrictive zoning and permitting barriers, America’s dream of affordable housing will remain stalled, no matter how many empty lots exist.
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